A clinical and echocardiographic score for assigning risk of major events after dobutamine echocardiograms

OBJECTIVES We sought to develop and validate a risk score combining both clinical and dobutamine echocardiographic (DbE) features in 4,890 patients who underwent DbE at three expert laboratories and were followed for death or myocardial infarction for up to five years. BACKGROUND In contrast to exercise scores, no score exists to combine clinical, stress, and echocardiographic findings with DbE. METHODS Dobutamine echocardiography was performed for evaluation of known or suspected coronary artery disease in 3,156 patients at two sites in the U.S. After exclusion of patients with incomplete follow-up, 1,456 DbEs were randomly selected to develop a multivariate model for prediction of events. After simplification of each model for clinical use, the models were internally validated in the remaining DbE patients in the same series and externally validated in 1,733 patients in an independent series. RESULTS The following score was derived from regression models in the modeling group (160 events): DbE risk = (age (.) 0.02) + (heart failure + rate-pressure product <15,000) (.) 0.4 + (ischemia + scar) (.) 0.6. The presence of each variable was scored as 1 and its absence scored as 0, except for age (continuous variable). Using cutoff values of 1.2 and 2.6, patients were classified into groups with five-year event-free survivals >95%, 75% to 95%, and <75%. Application of the score in the internal validation group (265 events) gave equivalent results, as did its application in the external validation group (494 events, C index = 0.72). CONCLUSIONS A risk score based on clinical and echocardiographic data may be used to quantify the risk of events in patients undergoing DbE. (C) 2004 by the American College of Cardiology Foundation.

Risk stratification of patients with chronic kidney disease: Results of screening strategies incorporating clinical risk scoring and dobutamine stress echocardiography

Background Cardiac disease is the principal cause of death in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Ischemia at dobutamine stress echocardiography (DSE) is associated with adverse events in these patients. We sought the efficacy of combining clinical risk evaluation with DSE. Methods We allocated 244 patients with CKD (mean age 54 years, 140 men, 169 dialysis-dependent at baseline) into low- and high-risk groups based on two disease-specific scores and the Framingham risk model. All underwent DSE and were further stratified according to DSE results. Patients were followed over 20 +/- 14 months for events (death, myocardial infarction, acute coronary syndrome). Results There were 49 deaths and 32 cardiac events. Using the different clinical scores, allocation of high risk varied from 34% to 79% of patients, and 39% to 50% of high-risk patients had an abnormal DSE. In the high-risk groups, depending on the clinical score chosen, 25% to 44% with an abnormal DSE had a cardiac event, compared with 8% to 22% with a.normal DSE. Cardiac events occurred in 2.0%, 3.1 %, and 9.7% of the low-risk patients, using the two disease-specific and Framingham scores, respectively, and DSE results did not add to risk evaluation in this subgroup. Independent DSE predictors of cardiac events were a lower resting diastolic blood pressure, angina during the test, and the combination of ischemia with resting left ventricular dysfunction. Conclusion In CKD patients, high-risk findings by DSE can predict outcome. A stepwise strategy of combining clinical risk scores with DSE for CAD screening in CKD reduces the number of tests required and identifies a high-risk subgroup among whom DSE results more effectively stratify high and low risk.

Development of a clinical and echocardiographic score for assigning risk of major events after exercise and dobutamine echocardiograms

The prognostic value of exercise (EXE) and dobutamine echocardiograms (DbE) has been well defined in large studies. However, while risk is determined by both clinical and echo features, no simple means of combining these data has been defined. We sought to combine these data into risk scores. Methods. At 3 expert centers, 7650 pts underwent standard EXE (n=5211) and DbE (w2439) for evaluation of known or suspected CAD and were followed for up to 10 years (mean 5-2) for major events (death or myocardial infarction). A subgroup of 2953 EXE and 1025 DbE pts was randomly selected to develop separate multivariate models for prediction of events. After simplication of each model for clinical use, models were validated in the remaining EXE and DbE pts. ResuI1s. The total number of events was 200 in the EXE and 225 in the DbE pts, of which 58 and 99 events occurred in the respective testing groups. The following regression equations gave equivalent results I” the testing and validation groups for both EXE and DbE; DbE = (Age’O.02) + (DM’l .O) + (Low RPP’0.6) + ([CHF+lschemia+Scar]‘O.7) EXE = ([DM+CHF]‘O.S) + O.S(lschemla #) + l.B(Scar#) - (METS0.19) (where each categorical variable scored 1 when present and 0 when absent, Ischemia# = 1 for l-2 VD. 6 for 3 VD; Scar# = 1 for 1-2 VD, 1.7 for 3 VD). The table summarizes the scores and equivalent outcomes for EXE and DbE. Conclusions. Risk scores based on clinical and EXE or DbE results may be used to quantify the risk of events during follow-up.

Impact of gender on risk stratification by exercise and dobutamine stress echocardiography: long-term mortality in 4234 women and 6898 men

Aims Prior research is limited with regard to the diagnostic and prognostic accuracy of commonplace cardiac imaging modalities in women. The aim of this study was to examine 5-year mortality in 4234 women and 6898 men undergoing exercise or dobutamine stress echocardiography at three hospitals. Methods and results Univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate time to cardiac death in this multi-centre, observational registry. Of the 11 132 patients, women had a greater frequency of cardiac risk factors (P < 0.0001). However, men more often had a history of coronary disease including a greater frequency of echocardiographic wall motion abnormalities (P < 0.0001). During 5 years of follow-up, 103 women and 226 men died from ischaernic heart disease (P < 0.0001). Echocardiographic estimates of left ventricular function (P < 0.0001) and the extent of ischaernic watt motion abnormalities (P < 0.0001) were highly predictive of cardiac death. Risk-adjusted 5-year survival was 99.4, 97.6, and 95% for exercising women with no, single, and multi-vessel ischaemia (P < 0.0001). For women undergoing dobutamine stress, 5-year survival was 95, 89, and 86.6% for those with 0, 1, and 2-3 vessel ischaemia (P < 0.0001). Exercising men had a 2.0-fold higher risk at every level of worsening ischaemia (P < 0.0001). Significantly worsening cardiac survival was noted for the 1568 men undergoing dobutamine stress echocardiography (P < 0.0001); no ischaemia was associated with 92% 5-year survival as compared with death rates of &GE; 16% for men with ischaemia on dobutamine stress echocardiography (P < 0.0001). Conclusion Echocardiographic measures of inducible wall motion abnormalities and global and regional left ventricutar function are highly predictive of long-term outcome for women and men alike.

A simple lifestyle score predicts survival in healthy elderly men

Background. Although improvements in life expectancy have been attributed in part to the adoption or a more prudent lifestyle, few studies have examined the association of lifestyle with survival, using several lifestyle factors simultaneously, in a healthy elderly population. Methods. We investigated the association of health related behaviors with mortality in 7989 men aged 65 to 83 years participating in a population-based trial in Perth, Western Australia, by calculating a lifestyle score as a simple tally of flow many or eight prudent behaviors each individual followed. Results. Invitations to screening produced a corrected response of 70.5%. Out of a possible score of 8.46% of men had a score of less than 5. Within 5 years, a total of 703 men (9%) had died from any cause. The hazard ratio in men with a low lifestyle score was 1.3 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.1-1.5] compared with men with a score of 5 or more. Conclusions. Lifestyle remains an important predictor of mortality even in old age. Survival in older men without a history of cardiovascular disease can potentially be enhanced by promoting a healthy lifestyle. © 2004 Elsevier Inc, All rights reserved.

Socioeconomic position, cognitive function, and clustering of cardiovascular risk factors in adolescence: Findings from the Mater University Study of Pregnancy and its outcomes

Objectives: The objectives of this study were to examine the extent of clustering of smoking, high levels of television watching, overweight, and high blood pressure among adolescents and whether this clustering varies by socioeconomic position and Cognitive function. Methods: This study was a cross-sectional analysis of 3613 (1742 females) participants of an Australian birth cohort who were examined at age 14. Results: Three hundred fifty-three (9.8%) of the participants had co-occurrence of three or four risk factors. Risk factors clustered in these adolescents with a greater number of participants than would be predicted by assumptions of independence having no risk factors and three or four risk factors. The extent of clustering tended to be greater in those from lower-income families and among those with lower cognitive function. The age-adjusted ratio of observed to expected cooccurrence of three or four risk factors was 2.70 (95% confidence interval [Cl], 1.80-4.06) among those from low-income families and 1.70 (95% Cl, 1.34-2.16) among those from more affluent families. The ratio among those with low Raven's scores (nonverbal reasoning) was 2.36 (95% Cl, 1.69-3.30) and among those with higher scores was 1.51 (95% Cl, 1.19-1.92); similar results for the WRAT 3 score (reading ability) were 2.69 (95% Cl, 1.85-3.94) and 1.68 (95% Cl, 1.34-2.11). Clustering did not differ by sex. Conclusion: Among adolescents, coronary heart disease risk factors cluster, and there is some evidence that this clustering is greater among those from families with low income and those who have lower cognitive function.

Psychosocial and non-psychosocial risk factors for the new diagnosis of diabetes in elderly women

Objectives: Determine psychosocial variables associated with the new diagnosis of diabetes in elderly women. Examine whether variables remained significant predictors after controlling for non-psychosocial risk factors and the frequency of doctor visits. Research design and methods: A longitudinal cohort study was conducted using data from 10 300 women who completed a survey in 1996 and 1999. The women were aged between 70 and 74 years of age in 1996. The were asked to provide self-reports on a number of psychosocial and non-psychosocial variables in 1996 and on whether they had been diagnosed for the first time with diabetes in the 3-year period. The relationships between the potential risk factors and new diagnosis of diabetes were examined using binary logistic regression analysis. Results: Univariate results showed that not having a current partner, having low social support and having a mental health index score in the clinical range were all associated with higher risks of being diagnosed with diabetes for the first time. However the multivariate results showed that only a mental health index score in the clinical range and not having a current partner provided unique prediction of being newly diagnosed with diabetes. Of the non-psychosocial variables measured, only having a high BMI and hypertension were associated with increased risks of new diagnosis, while there was also evidence of a U shaped relationship between alcohol consumption and new diagnosis. Even after adjusting for frequency of doctor visits and non-psychosocial risk factors, a mental health index in the clinical range proved to still be a significant risk factor. Conclusions: A score on the mental health index that is within the clinical range is an independent risk factor for the new diagnosis of diabetes in elderly women. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Relationship of body condition score and blood urea and ammonia to pregnancy in Italian Mediterranean buffaloes

The relationship of body condition score ( BCS) and blood urea and ammonia to pregnancy outcome was examined in Italian Mediterranean Buffalo cows mated by AI. The study was conducted on 150 buffaloes at 145 +/- 83 days in milk that were fed a diet comprising 14.8% crude protein, 0.9 milk forage units . kg(-1) dry matter and a non- structural carbohydrate/ crude protein ratio of 2.14. The stage of the oestrous cycle was synchronised by the Ovsynch- TAI programme and blood urea and ammonia levels were assessed on the day of AI. Energy corrected milk ( ECM) production and BCS were recorded bi- weekly. The pregnancy risk was 46.7% and was slightly lower in buffaloes with BCS < 6.0 and BCS > 7.5. There were no significant differences in ECM, urea and ammonia between pregnant and non- pregnant buffaloes. However, pregnancy outcome was higher ( P = 0.02) in buffaloes with blood urea < 6.83 mmol . L-1. The likelihood of pregnancy for buffaloes with low urea blood level was 2.6 greater than for high urea level and exposure to a high urea level lowered the probability of pregnancy by about 0.25. The findings indicate that buffaloes are similar to cattle and increased blood levels of urea are associated with reduced fertility when animals are mated by AI.

Cardiovascular risk estimation by professionally active cardiovascular nurses: Results from the Basel 2005 Nurses Cohort

Background Nurses play a key role in the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and one would, therefore, expect them to have a heightened awareness of the need for systematic screening and their own CVD risk profile. The aim of this study was to examine personal awareness of CVD risk among a cohort of cardiovascular nurses attending a European conference. Methods Of the 340 delegates attending the 5th annual Spring Meeting on Cardiovascular Nursing (Basel, Switzerland, 2005), 287 (83%) completed a self-report questionnaire to assess their own risk factors for CVD. Delegates were also asked to give an estimation of their absolute total risk of experiencing a fatal CVD event in the next 10 years. Level of agreement between self-reported CVD risk estimation and their actual risk according to the SCORE risk assessment system was compared by calculating weighted Kappa (κw). Results Overall, 109 responders (38%) self-reported having either pre-existing CVD (only 2%), one or more markedly raised CVD risk factors, a high total risk of fatal CVD (≥ 5% in 10 years) or a strong family history of CVD. About half of this cohort (53%) did not know their own total cholesterol level. Less than half (45%) reported having a 10-year risk of fatal CVD of < 1%, while 13% reported having a risk ≥ 5%. Based on the SCORE risk function, the estimated 10-year risk of a fatal CVD event was < 1% for 96% of responders: only 2% had a ≥ 5% risk of such an event. Overall, less than half (46%) of this cohort's self-reported CVD risk corresponded with that calculated using the SCORE risk function (κw = 0.27). Conclusion Most cardiovascular nurses attending a European conference in 2005 poorly understood their own CVD risk profile, and the agreement between their self-reported 10-year risk of a fatal CVD and their CVD risk using SCORE was only fair. Given the specialist nature of this conference, our findings clearly demonstrate a need to improve overall nursing awareness of the role and importance of systematic CVD risk assessment.

Double-heater-wire circuits and heat-and-moisture exchangers and the risk of ventilator-associated pneumonia

Objective: To compare the incidence of ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) in patients ventilated in intensive care by means of circuits humidified with a hygroscopic heat-and-moisture exchanger with a bacterial viral filter (HME) or hot-water humidification with a heater wire in both inspiratory and expiratory circuit limbs (DHW) or the inspiratory limb only (SHW). Design: A prospective, randomized trial. Setting: A metropolitan teaching hospital's general intensive care unit. Patients: Three hundred eighty-one patients requiring a minimum period of mechanical ventilation of 48 hrs. Interventions: Patients were randomized to humidification with use of an HME (n = 190), SHW (n = 94), or DHW (n = 97). Measurements and Main Results. Study end points were VAP diagnosed on the basis of Clinical Pulmonary Infection Score (CPIS) (1), HME resistance after 24 hrs of use, endotracheal tube resistance, and HME use per patient. VAP occurred with similar frequency in all groups (13%, HME; 14%, DHW; 10%, SHW; p = 0.61) and was predicted only by current smoking (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 2.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1-3.9; p =.03) and ventilation days (AOR, 1.05; 95% Cl, 1.0-1.2; p =.001); VAP was less likely for patients with an admission diagnosis of pneumonia (AOR, 0.40; 95% Cl, 0.4-0.2; p =.04). HME resistance after 24 hrs of use measured at a gas flow of 50 L/min was 0.9 cm H2O (0.4-2.9). Endotracheal tube resistance was similar for all three groups (16-19 cm H2O min/L; p =.2), as were suction frequency, secretion thickness, and blood on suctioning (p =.32, p =.06, and p =.34, respectively). The HME use per patient per day was 1.13. Conclusions: Humidification technique does not influence either VAP incidence or secretion characteristics, but HMEs may have air-flow resistance higher than manufacturer specifications after 24 hrs of use.

Interaction of psychosocial risk factors explain increased neck problems among female office workers

This study investigated the relationship between psychosocial risk factors and (1) neck symptoms and (2) neck pain and disability as measured by the neck disability index (NDI). Female office workers employed in local private and public organizations were invited to participate, with 333 completing a questionnaire. Data were collected on various risk factors including age, negative affectivity, history of previous neck trauma, physical work environment, and task demands. Sixty-one percent of the sample reported neck symptoms lasting greater than 8 days in the last 12 months. The mean NDI of the sample was 15.5 out of 100, indicating mild neck pain and disability. In a hierarchical multivariate logistic regression, low supervisor support was the only psychosocial risk factor identified with the presence of neck symptoms. Similarly, low supervisor support was the only factor associated with the score on the NDI. These associations remained after adjustment for potential confounders of age, negative affectivity, and physical risk factors. The interaction of job demands, decision authority, and supervisor support was significantly associated with the NDI in the final model and this association increased when those with previous trauma were excluded. Interestingly, and somewhat contrary to initial expectations, as job demands increased, high decision authority had an increasing effect on the NDI when supervisor support was low. Crown copyright (c) 2006 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.